Time for Desperate Measures: National Emergency? Iran?

But Democrats Must Avoid Falling Prey to Trump’s Ruthlessness

As the clock runs down to the midterms, a sinking Donald Trump fears the verdict: an end to his unfettered reign with no checks and balances to restrain him. As Trump’s poll numbers crater, Trump turns to his playbook to reset his chances in November. He fears losing his protective shield if he loses the House. That means the prospect of endless investigations, impeachment, and Epstein file reveals. The heat will hit him. Is it “widespread election fraud”? Is it the Iran strike?” Diversionary tactics?

Just as this post went to press, and just as the United States was pursuing negotiations with Iran to limit their nuclear program, Trump may have resorted to what some are calling the most desperate measure of all: the attack on Iran. Unlike many of his other measures, the role of Commander-in-Chief carries enormous symbolic weight. More on the impact of this attack at a later time.

Trump’s Other Desperate Measure: Claims of Election Fraud

With his so-called SAVE bill to take control of elections unlikely to pass the Senate, new reporting suggests that Trump may be considering a new desperate measure: an executive order to declare a national emergency in the midterms based on so far baseless claims that China interfered in the 2020 election.

The Washington Post reports that, following Trump’s “reinvestigation” of the 2020 election, Trump activists “who say they are in coordination with the White House” are circulating a 17-page draft executive order that claims China interfered in the 2020 election. They are using this as a basis to declare a national emergency that would give Trump sweeping presidential power over voting.

This order would include usurping control of elections from the states, banning mail ballots and voting machines, and burdensome proof-of-citizenship requirements, among other provisions. Trump now claims he has no knowledge of the proposed executive order – at least for now.

No Evidence of Chinese Involvement

With truth often a casualty in this White House, there is no evidence of widespread voter fraud or foreign interference in the 2020 election. An assessment by the U.S. intelligence community found no evidence that any foreign actor altered vote tallies or changed election results in 2020.

And to be clear, Constitutional lawyers overwhelmingly describe President Trump’s planned executive order as unconstitutional because the Constitution gives those powers to Congress and the states—not the president. See, for example, the Brennan Center’s analysis.

But the country is now dependent on the courts, not the Congress, to determine Trump’s limits. And court decisions could come too late for the midterms. Those states and counties dominated by Democrats would likely brush off Trump’s order. But states and counties in the MAGA grip might not be so willing or politically able.

Why consider these desperate measures?

On almost every measure of midterm performance, it’s advantage Democrats.

• Trump’s overall job approval numbers have tanked (36% to 40%) and in virtually every issue area as well, including affordability and even ICE immigration enforcement.

• Democrats have overperformed in every off-year election so far, not just the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. They’ve even turned some deep red districts blue.

• Recent CNN’s polling finds a majority of Americans consider the first year of Trump’s second term to be a failure.

• Six in ten Americans, including a significant slice of Republicans, think President Donald Trump has become erratic as he ages, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.

• The same Reuters/Ipsos poll, completed Monday, showed 68% of people disagree with a statement that “the U.S. economy is booming,” a claim Trump has repeatedly made since returning to office in January 2025.

• In the turnout sensitive midterms most Democratic registered voters (79%) are extremely/very motivated to vote in 2026, compared to 65% of Republicans, according to Washington Post polling.

• Trump is now 16 points underwater on his immigration crackdown, with 58% disapproving and 40% approving, following ICE’s brutal killings of two American citizens and their lawless enforcement tactics – an issue which started as one of his most popular issues during the campaign to deport the “worst of the worst,” but is now anything but.

Democrats also maintain the edge in generic ballot polling. Nate Silver’s latest aggregate generic house ballot polling shows Democrats with a 5.4 percentage edge. The generic ballot measures which of the two major parties’ voters would rather support in an upcoming House election. And the party out of power generally gains ground as election day approaches.

Trump is on the Ballot

Does all this matter in a midterm race fought in a Congressional district and not nationally? Yes! Trump is not officially on the midterm ballot. But in reality, he has hijacked the entire Republican party. It’s his party.

And Trump’s resurrecting his election fraud claims, his call to nationalize elections under his supervision, his push for redistricting away Democratic districts, and his proposal to send intimidating ICE agents to Democratic precincts all point to one thing: Republicans up for reelection have reason to fret about the midterms. Democratic overperformance in the off-year elections prove that Republicans have reason to worry.

Epstein Files Haunt Trump’s Base

Epstein files have even caused a rupture in Trump’s base – core MAGA supporters. They believed Trump would fully release the files, expose a “client list,” and validate long‑running conspiracy narratives.

The fallout intensified after an NPR investigation found that the Department of Justice (DOJ) removed or withheld dozens of pages from the public database that included allegations of sexual abuse against Trump. Republican Senators are putting pressure on Attorney General Pam Bondi to release all files that mention Trump’s name, according to The Hill. They warn that the issue will not go away unless all files are released.

Trump “Shortchanging” Affordability

While some of his aides have urged him to focus on affordability – the major issue that propelled him into the oval office and is draining his support now. That receives little attention. He pretty much bypassed the issue In his State of the Union address this past week. As Americans struggle to make ends meet every day, affordability and taxes received just 4.2 minutes out of the 108 minute State of the Union speech, with no concrete policies offered.

In fact, Tuesday night, the man and his family who turned the White House into a money-making machine – upwards of $1.4 billion and counting, according to the New York Times – declared “victory” on “affordability.” Maybe he was just claiming victory in “what his country can do for him,” as the New York Times put it. And he has funneled many billions into the bank accounts of his billionaire friends as well though tax provisions favoring the wealthy, tariff carve-outs that benefited companies run by his allies, and deregulatory moves, such as suspending environmental regulations on coal and energy companies.

And if you stayed awake to follow Trump down his nearly two hour rabbit hole expecting him to lay fresh plans for tackling affordability, he presented no new plans, blaming Democrats instead. Trump tightened his grip on the lectern, leaned forward, and used sharp, percussive taps to punctuate lines. In sum, you also got a big mix of what some have described as ceremony, conflict, improvisation, and producing a State of the Union that was unpredictable, visually chaotic, and unlike any in recent memory.

Trump’s Economic Results

What his policies and his beloved tariffs produced were the exact opposite of what he promised: rising grocery prices – up about 3% in the past year -- and exploding costs of energy, heath care, and housing. Trump’s “Big Ugly Bill” cut vital Medicaid spending by over $500 billion, leaving over 25 million people without coverage. Yet Trump promised to make everything “so cheap you’ll be tired of cheap.”

But here’s a better picture from Washington Post/ABC polling of an economy that many economists describe as, “an economy that lifts the top and squeezes the bottom.” Most feel they are “falling behind,” particularly at lower income levels.

Affordability is a key issue for Democrats to win back working class voters, who constitute 60% of the U.S. electorate. It’s these voters who feel the squeeze. And Democrats need to win back at least a slice of blue collar workers lost in 2024. Depending on the exact definition, network exit polls found Trump with a 10 percentage point edge, 56%-42% over Harris here.

Not a Democratic Slam-Dunk

Democrats have often been accused of never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity. Democrats need to avoid the kinds of crucial missteps that cost the Democrats the 2024 trifecta. I’ll avoid the hastened transition to Kamela Harris 102 days before election day.

Democrats are prone to sometimes missing opportunities because, unlike the MAGA Trump Republicans, the Democratic party is a big tent party – not easy to “herd” into a fighting machine. Republicans are even expert at cherry-picking attack points from the myriad and diverse Democratic party base. (e.g., “Defund the police.”)

Bolstering Their Stock

Since the GOP swept the trifecta in 2024, the Democrats have suffered from a voter base skeptical that their party can deliver, brand confusion, internal bickering and infighting, and muddled messaging that blurs their economic focus – all of which dampens voter enthusiasm as the midterms draw closer.

But Democrats are showing signs of recovery. For anyone still awake after Trump’s almost two hour State of the Union ramble (and I wasn’t), Virginia Governor Abigail Spamberger’s rebuttal struck the right chord. She posed the key issue that should be the centerpiece of Democrats midterm campaign.

“Is the president working to make life more affordable for you and your family? …Is the president working for you? We all know the answer is no,” she said.

Stop Being Just the Anti-Trump Party

Many Democrats are angry with their party. They blame the loss of many working class voters and even many minorities – long the bedrock of Democratic support – on “not standing up for people like myself.” In interviews, many Democrats complained of the party’s “woke agenda” – weaponized by Trump’s MAGAs.

And, for many, Democrats are just the anti-Trump party. CNN polling cited above finds the major motivating factor for many (79%) is that the vote will “send a message about Trump.” Truth is that for several presidential elections, anti-Trump sentiment, not Democratic party advocacy was the major motivator of Democratic voters.

• In 2020, a large majority of Biden voters (68%) in Pew polling said their vote was driven “more against Trump than for Biden.” Only 29% said they were voting primarily for Biden.

• In 2024, 58% of Biden voters said in Pew polling that their vote was “mostly against Donald Trump.”

Democrats Need to Show They Can Deliver

Midterm elections center heavily on turnout, which troubled Democrats even in the 2024 general election. Democratic rank-and-file views of their own party have not recovered since the 2024 gut-punch. Only about 7 in 10 Democrats have a positive view of the Democratic Party in AP-NORC polling. This is far lower than pre‑2024 levels. AP‑NORC and other research, both polling and quantitative, find rank-and-file Democrats frustrated that the party seems weak, timid, reactive, or muddled. They want leadership to:

• Avoid “woke” actions and statements – a favorite attack line from Republicans;

• Show strength by taking Trump head-on, pick fights and punch back;

• Stop appearing defensive;

• Stop reacting to Trump’s meandering and incoherent “weave” and insults instead of presenting a coherent view of what the party stands for;

• Demonstrate that Democrats can deliver results even while out of power, as Republicans demonstrated when they were in the minority under Obama’s presidency.

Here’s what the latest February CBS News Poll of registered voters revealed:

In Sum

Trump reads the likely scoreboard seven months out. He’s willing to take drastic measures to swing the midterms his way. He fears exposure to impeachment, Congressional investigation, losing his grip on Congress, and just fear of embarrassment, particularly if then newly released Epstein files reveal incriminating information. But Democrats need to strengthen their base to avoid falling prey to Trump’s ruthlessness.

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