Polls: Thumbs Down on Trump’s Third-Term Tease

But Is the White House Being Converted Into an Extended Stay Residence?

A new gold-plated ballroom replacing the historic now demolished East Wing. A “renovated” and now gold-accented marble Lincoln bathroom. Rewriting the history of the “people’s house”?

Is the White House being converted into an “extended stay” Trump family domicile for a third term or more? As both Trump and his MAGA mastermind Steve Bannon have doubled down on Trump’s occupying the White House for a third term, maybe more, Trump seems to be redesigning the White House into “Mar-a-Lago North.”

Trump keeps flirting with a third term run, casting aside Constitutional prohibitions. But parsing his words and thoughts is chancy at best. For example, somewhere between Japan and Korea on Air Force One Thursday, Trump did express some second thoughts about a third term run.

But on board Air Force One en route to Japan last Monday Trump refused to rule out a bid for a third presidential term. “I would love to do it,” Trump said when asked about the prospect of a 2028 presidential bid. “I have my best numbers ever.” (His “best numbers” exist only in Trump’s alternative universe, not in reality.) And in September, Trump posted photographs on Truth Social in which Trump 2028 hats rested prominently on his Oval Office desk.

Bannon: “Get accommodated with that.”

Last week Bannon insisted “Trump is going to be president in ‘28 and people just ought to get accommodated with that.” And in March Trump said he was “not joking” about the prospect, claiming that “there are methods which you could do it.”

Of course, Trump and Bannon may just “trolling the libs.” The “Trump 2028” hats Trump distributes from the oval office are probably just what some call “politainment” – a mix of politics and entertainment. Moreover, the Constitution’s 22nd Amendment explicitly states, “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.” Full stop? Maybe, but all bets are off.

Polls: Thumbs Down to a Third Trump Term

Let’s be clear. Public opinion polling shows no appetite for a Trump third term, even among Republicans. A whopping 70 percent of Americans oppose Trump running for a third term, according to an Economist/YouGov poll earlier this year. Only fewer than 1 in 5 voters (17 percent) want him to run again.

However, even as voters don’t want another Trump run, they expect Trump will make an attempt — 52 percent said that Trump will try for a third term, with only 25 percent saying he won’t attempt it. Only 36% of Republicans want Trump to run again, compared to 3% of Democrats. Less than 1 in 10 Americans (8%|) think that the Constitution allows it. By party, only 2% of Democrats and 16% of Republicans believe that the Constitution allows it.

Not surprisingly, 7 in 10 Democrats (70%) expect that Trump will override Constitutional prohibitions and run again compared to only 1 in 3 Republicans (34%).

Reasons for Concern: Trump’s History of Exceeding Normal Powers

The reasons for the public’s concerns are evident. The Constitution and public opinion not withstanding, Trump has exceeded normal Constitutional powers and barreled through the norms of presidential power with abandon many times.

He has sidelined Congress as a check on his power. And the Supreme Court has largely turned a blind eye to his transgressions based on the flimsy and controversial unified executive theory.

Trump Strategy: Undermining Confidence in Elections

A key part of the Trump 2028 strategy may be his ongoing efforts to undermine confidence in the entire election process. To this day Trump has been claiming without evidence that the 2020 election results were “rigged” and should have been voided due to “total FRAUD,” “chaos” from Covid-era expanded mail-in voting, and major misconduct. In a 2022 Truth Social post, he wrote:

“Declare the rightful winner or, and this would be the minimal solution, declare the 2020 Election irreparably compromised and have a new Election, immediately!”

Trump’s rhetoric about being “owed” a term serves multiple purposes, one of which may be preparing the groundwork for that 2028 run:

• Mobilizing his base by reinforcing the narrative of victimhood and injustice.

• Utilizing “his” Department of Justice” and FBI to delegitimize opponents and organizations which challenge him.

· Impinging on free speech to a degree that the federal government has not since perhaps the Red Scare of the 1940s and 1950s. (NY Times)

Trump Supporters Attempted A Coup

Let’s not forget that in July 2020, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump suggested delaying the election, citing unfounded concerns about fraud and chaos from expanded mail-in voting. While he did not formally attempt to cancel or suspend the election, his language about postponement or disruption was unprecedented in modern U.S. politics.

Two months after his defeat in the 2020 presidential election on January 6, 2021, a mob of Trump supporters attacked on the Capitol in what appeared to be attempted coup.

Judge Luttig: Trump’s “Unchecked Power”

Esteemed conservative legal scholar and retired judge Michael J. Luttig bluntly summarized in the Atlantic reasons for worry regardless of the Constitution’s 22^nd Amendment or public opinion.

“I have never once in more than four decades believed that any president— Democrat or Republican—would intentionally violate the Constitution or a law of the United States. But Trump is different from all prior presidents in his utter contempt for the Constitution and America’s democracy.”

In an MSNBC interview last week, Judge Luttig further warned that Donald Trump will attempt a third term run. “Donald Trump has near unchecked power.”

NY Times: No Precedent

The New York Times editorial board doubled down on Luttig’s warning in an editorial Friday, “In Trump’s America, Are We Losing Our Democracy?” The editorial compiled a list of 12 markers of democratic erosion, concluding that Donald Trump’s evident goal is to cause Americans to fear they will pay a price for criticizing him, his allies or his agenda. They also note that he has “wielded power as no previous president has, often in open defiance of the law.”

Moreover, when asked about the prospect of Chicagoans engaging in non-violent resistance against his suggested posting of the U.S. military in their city, Trump said in a cabinet meeting, “Not that I don’t have the right to do anything I want to do. I’m the president of the United States.”

Why Stay in Power? One Senator’s Take

Why might Trump attempt to overcome Constitutional prohibitions to remain in power? Here’s one Senator’s red alert. In an address at the Brookings Institution last Wednesday, Michigan Senator Elisa Slotkin warned about what may be Trump’s ultimate plan for retaining power. She noted that in authoritarian governments there comes a “tipping point” where the person in power realizes they have to stay in power somehow to prevent that very power from being used against them. She said:

“The clearest sign that a democracy has died is that a leader and his party make it impossible for their opponents to win an election and hold power.”

In Trump’s case, she not only fears that it could happen in two ways, but sees the threats emerging:

· First would be a scenario where Trump invokes the Insurrection Act and tries to impose martial law, either cancelling elections or surrounding polling places with the military.

· Second, would be labeling opposition groups as terrorists or criminals, undermining the competitive nature of an election. She pointed to his creation of two “weaponization” working groups ― including members of the intelligence community ― to go after Trump’s perceived enemies.

Another Take on the Threat

The Atlantic’s Donald Graham details in exacting terms the steps the Trump administration has already taken––and the steps it could take––to undermine the coming midterm election to maintain his total hold on power. He details the steps Trump has already taken to undermine confidence in the 2026 midterms.

Graham and others note that Trump has consistently tried to spread distrust of voting by mail, and he and his allies have insisted for nearly a decade—without ever providing proof—that many voting machines are not secure. He’s also:

· cut about a third of Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security workforce that safeguards election systems from foreign and domestic hackers.

· slashed millions of dollars of assistance to local election officials responsible for election integrity.

· stationed federal election observers in Democratic party strongholds which critics fear can chill voters and poll workers and erode trust in elections.

Finally, Federal law specifically bans the presence of “any troops or armed men at any place where a general or special election. However, with Trump’s deployment of the National Guard to several Democratic cities, some experts believe that military intervention is now not only possible but likely.

Graham continues, “Trump will exploit any weaknesses he can find; any damage to the system will encourage worse rigging in two years, and maybe even a quest for a third term.” And if the president has two more years to act without any “checks, there may not be much democracy left to save in 2028.”

In Sum

Most Americans have no appetite for a Trump third term run. Most understand the Constitutional prohibition. But a majority of Americans fear that Trump is planning a 2028 run or will find another way to remain in the oval office.

Many commentators worry that Trump is already setting the stage. With no Congressional restraint and a very permissive Supreme Court, Trump has been a serial violator of Constitutional norms. He has repeatedly attempted to undermine confidence in elections, still claiming fraud denied him the presidency in 2020. Senator Slotkin even worries that Trump would invoke the Insurrection Act to cancel the 2028 election.

In short, many fear that Trump’s actions and words will undermine democracy and cancel out the 2028 election, leaving him in power for the foreseeable future.

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