Polls: Americans Question Iran Air Strikes

Early Intelligence Questions Trump’s Assessment and Draws His Ire

Donald Trump’s chaotic decision-making and early intelligence service reports have cast doubt on the wisdom and impact of B-2 stealth bomber “bunker buster” airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Only about 1 in 5 (22%) Americans trust Trump “a great deal” to make the “right decisions” on the use of force in Iran. As a result, the overall polling verdict at this early stage is a modest thumbs down but marked by a deep partisan divide.

Clearly, intelligence reports and views on the strike are still evolving. But here’s where the public stands now with the caveat that these early polls were taken largely before the announcement of the tentative cease-fire:

 -- CNN/SSRS polling finds Americans disapprove of the strikes 56% to 44%. Most distrust Trump’s decision-making on the use of force in Iran, with about 6 in 10 worried that the strikes will increase the Iranian threat to the US.

 -- CBS/YouGov polling finds exactly the same 56% to 44% disapproval of the air strikes, with a deep partisan divide: 85% Republicans support the strikes compared to 13% of Democrats and 36% of independents.

A slightly later NBC poll found 45% oppose the airstrikes versus 38% who support them, with 18% undecided. Respondents who identify with the MAGA movement in NBC polling are significantly more supportive of the strikes than those who identify as traditional Republicans, 70% to 49%. NBC polling used a slightly different methodology, which may account for the somewhat different findings.

Fear of Wider Conflict

CBS polling finds broad agreement that an Iran with nuclear weapons would be a “very serious threat” both to the U.S. (56% very serious) and to Israel (65% very serious). But only 32% of people in the survey said they support continued U.S. airstrikes, compared to 49% who said they were opposed. However, within Trump's Republican Party, 62% backed further strikes and 22% were opposed.

Polling reveals deep worries about the air strikes second-order effects. Worry #1 is that 4 in 5 Americans (79%) fear Iran may target U.S. civilians in response to the U.S. airstrikes. Worry #2 is that 84% of Americans dread the possibility of a wider conflict with Iran – this after years of Middle East quagmires in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Trump’s Tirade

Why the public’s distrust? Even without benefit of detailed intelligence Trump immediately declared that Iran’s nuclear facilities were “completely and fully obliterated” -- this without an assessment of the true extent of damage and whether Tehran had moved stocks of enriched uranium before the U.S. attack.

Then Trump angrily pushed back on leaked early intelligence assessments from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) which estimated that the strikes set back Iran’s nuclear program “only a few months.” DIA specified it was a low confidence assessment — not a final conclusion. However, in a name-calling tirade, Trump accused the DIA of pushing “fake news” and being part of the “deep state.” Trump’s attacks on the news media followed for covering the intelligence estimates.

This morning’s press briefing by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth repeatedly attacked the media. He also reported that CIA Director John Ratcliffe said that new intelligence “from a historically reliable and accurate source/method” indicated that Iran’s nuclear program was severely damaged.” Few details were forthcoming. Hegseth failed to address the issue of whether Iran moved the highly enriched uranium prior to the air strike.

Deep Partisan Divide, Bipartisan Concerns

Underlying the disapproval is a deep and largely bipartisan concern that the U.S. could get involved in a wider war with Iran at a time when isolationism has swelled. And to add to Trump’s concerns, several recent polls also registered record-low or near-record low job approval ratings.

Polls find many lack confidence in Trump’s ability to make the right decisions on use of force in Iraq. Mistrust of Trump’s judgment is especially high among Democrats (88% of whom express little or no trust) and independents (62%), who also broadly say the president should be required to get congressional approval for any further military action in Iran (88% of Democrats and 67% of independents feel that way).

Republicans express more trust in the president, although that trust is also somewhat tempered: 51% say they have a great deal of trust in him to make the right decisions on the use of force with Iran, 37% a moderate amount.

Need for Congressional Approval?

The airstrikes also raise questions about the role of Congress. Almost two-thirds (63%) say Mr. Trump needs congressional approval for action against Iran. And the GOP divides over whether Trump ought to be required to get congressional approval for further action, with 39% saying he should be required to do so, 38% that he should not and 23% are not sure.

Further reducing Congress’s role, the White House now plans to limit classified intelligence sharing with Congress after leaks to the press of an early assessment undermined President Donald Trump’s claim that U.S. airstrikes “obliterated” Iranian nuclear facilities.

Research: Trump’s Falsehoods and Public Misperceptions

Whatever the truth about the damage to Iran’s nuclear capabilities, academic research sheds further light on why many Americans are wary of Trump’s claims while others assume claims to be true. By the time Trump 1.0 left office in 2021, Trump made an estimated 30,573 false claims by the Washington Post’s count. Researchers at Vanderbilt University found that repetition of Trump’s false claims correlated with belief in the claims by Republicans but a decrease in Democratic misperceptions. These findings built on what researchers call the “illusory truth effect,” which contends that repetition increases belief in both true and false statements.

The Vanderbilt researchers suggest that the pattern results from the type of media consumed. “Republicans may consume news media that amplifies these false claims, while Democrats may consume media that ignores or outright rejects them.” In particular, the effect was strongest among people who watched Fox News and other right-leaning media, especially among Republicans.

Broader Context: Iran Post-JCPOA

These early reads on the public’s views will likely evolve over time as intelligence agencies are better able to assess the full extent of damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities and the role of diplomacy in settling the Israel – Iran war.

Looking at the broader picture reveals that, following the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Agreement (JCPOA) negotiated by the Obama administration, Iran had pretty much stopped uranium enrichment. As the chart below indicates, Iran stepped up its enrichment program after Trump withdrew from the JCPOA. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has enriched large quantities of uranium to 60%. The IAEA reports that It’s easier to go from an enrichment of 60% to 90% than it is to get to that initial 60%. That puts Iran closer to producing nuclear weapons.

Final Thoughts

No one doubts the exactitude of the years of military planning and the bravery of the B-2 pilots who executed the mission. However, whatever Trump claims, we cannot determine for sure the full extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear capabilities in the absence of further assessment. We also cannot determine at this point whether Iran moved the enriched stockpiles to another location.

The air strikes did set off yet another Trump tirade on the media. He repeatedly attacked CNN and the New York Times for calling into question his damage assessment. He called on CNN to throw out “like a dog” a reporter who worked on the story. He suggested the Times reporters were “bad and sick people.” He added, “What they've done is they've tried to make this unbelievable victory into something less.”

Deal or no deal? Trump complained that Iran would “not take his deal.” Then at the NATO summit last week he said, “I don’t care if I have an agreement or not.”

Finally, did his withdrawal from the JCPOA and the bunker-buster bombing reduce Iran’s eventual willingness to negotiate an end to hostilities? While he now calls for negotiations, he initially called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and regime change. His chaotic negotiating style led him to post on Truth Social, “If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change???” “MIGA!!!”

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