Joe Biden’s decision to seek a second term hinged in large part on his fear of a Trump second term. “If Trump wasn't running, I'm not sure I'd be running,” Biden said at a campaign event in Boston. “But we cannot let him win." Some Biden surrogates insist that “Biden is the only Democrat who can beat Trump.” That’s now in question.
Thursday night’s historically early debate was supposed to give Joe Biden the opportunity to erase major voter concern over his advanced age and mental fitness. Biden’s fumbling performance did nothing to dispel concerns, leading to a deluge of calls for Biden to step down. The pre-debate horse-race polling was already what many are calling a “margin of error” race, with Biden even slightly behind in most battleground states. His candidacy thus far has been far from encouraging. Granted, losing a debate is not the same as serving in the nation’s top post, but it’s the image that it leaves in voters’ heads. And a weak top of ticket could increase the odds of losing not only the White House, but House and Senate as well.
“Double Haters”
The debate actually raised concerns about both contenders. Let’s remember that Trump unleashed his usual firehose of outright lies and falsehoods, raising concerns about what another four years of Trump would bring. As former Republican operative Brendan Buck wrote, “Trump may not have won…but Biden lost. “ Trump is vulnerable, let alone his load of legal issues. Truth is, many voters in our polls are despairing of both Biden and Trump, facing an election with many “double haters.” Over 4 in 10 voters (42%) say the match-up is “depressing.” Pew Center polling finds that, if voters were given the chance, about half (49%) would replace both candidates. Today’s Supreme Court decision further empowering the president by given him/her immunity in any actions taken in his/her official capacity only ups the ante in this election.
More troubling for Democrats is that Biden has not even differentiated himself from Trump on certain key issues, such as the economy and preservation of democracy. AP polling finds Americans generally think that while they were in the White House, both did more harm than good on key issues.
An Opportunity for Democrats?
There’s a good chance that Democrats can improve their odds of prevailing in November by taking this opportunity to change horses with a candidate who is not weighed down by age and questions of mental acuity. When Biden locked down the nomination in the primaries, he faced little opposition, but a lot of “zombie voters” who voted for “none of the above.” A number of promising potential Democrats sat on the sidelines out of loyalty to Biden. At this juncture, too much is at stake for Democrats to sit still and take the easy path of renominating Biden.
Anti-Trumpers Key to Democratic Support
Will Biden supporters stand behind a switch? Four in ten (41%) of Democratic voters in a new USA Today/Suffolk poll already say Biden should be removed as the Democratic Party’s 2024 presidential nominee following his disastrous debate performance. Much of Biden’s support is readily transferable because it comes from anti-Trumpers who fear a second Trump term. One key to Biden’s victory in 2020, according to Pew Center polling, was that over half of Biden supporters (56%) cited being anti-Trump as the main reason they were voting for Biden. Bloomberg/Morning Consult polling this cycle finds a similar dynamic.
No Biden Magic
What’s more, a change in the ticket might give Democrats the opportunity to regain some defected base voters such as young voters and urbanites. Another opportunity for Democrats is more effective targeting of the “zombie” anti-Trump Republicans, many of whom voted for Nikki Haley as a protest vote.
Yes, many Democrats are despairing and see little opportunity to mount a new candidacy and fear a divisive brokered convention. Post-debate polling by Data for Progress (below) does find an array of Democrats do about the same as Biden against Trump, even though voters so far have had little exposure to most of them. NBC polling last November found that an unnamed “Democratic candidate” turned a four-point Democratic deficit against Trump into an eight-point lead, 48 percent to 40 percent.
The bottom line is that there is no Biden magic in the numbers, just a vast concern about how Biden erases the post-debate image of an enfeebled octogenarian, who will be 86 at the conclusion of his term. Be assured that the Republicans will saturate the airwaves with debate clips of a frail, confused Biden.
In Sum
Frankly, looking at a line-up of potential candidates, most of whom have never run a national race, the numbers show there is no magic to Biden’s candidacy. He has not gotten the job done thus far against Trump this time. We face a rerun full of “double haters” who despise both candidates and may just sit home. The undecideds who will decide this race in the battleground states are thus far still looking. Democrats have the opportunity to clear the slate and nominate a candidate who can inspire voters and bring back to the party critical elements of the base that have defected or remain undecided. And today’s Supreme Court decision giving almost total immunity to a president ups the election ante if and when a president is elected who seeks vengeance against his political opponents. We do seem to be facing that situation now depending on the election outcome. Further damaging would be if a weak top of ticket leads to a Republican takeover of both houses of Congress, possibly eliminating even Constitutional “checks and balances” on a Trump presidency.
Whatever happens, the party must avoid a 1968 “Chicago-style” brokered nomination which could tear the party apart and sink the chance to hold the While House. And the convention is in Chicago.
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As always, Mark, your crisp, clear and data driven opinion is a welcomed antidote to the repetitive verbosity of the pundits!!!