Epstein Files: Why Trump Fears a Backlash
The Polls: Conspiracy Beliefs Central to Trump’s Base
Donald Trump’s MAGA base was built in large part on a steady diet of disproven conspiracy theories – from birtherism to stolen elections. Political scientist Russell Muirhead contends that Trump has exploited conspiracies “more ably than anybody probably in American history.” Now the Epstein scandal forces Trump to haul out his weapon of choice: disproven conspiracy theories.
Here's why: he’s underwater now for his handling of the economy and most other issues, but the divide is largely partisan. By contrast, the Epstein firestorm has crossed party lines into his own base. This forces Trump to haul out his weapon of choice to put the scandal back in the box: flooding the zone with disproven conspiracies to change the subject.
Our objective here is to use polls to examine the susceptibility of Trump’s followers to disproven conspiracies and why this strategy may have reached its limit in the Epstein case.
Trump Fighting Conspiracies with Conspiracies
Among Trump’s favorite targets and with no evidence, he charged Obama with “treason” to "lead a coup" with false intelligence assessments that said Russia "favored" Trump's 2016 election – a crime punishable by death. Trump even posted an AI-generated fake video on his social media platform showing Obama's arrest.
Then to further change the subject, he issued an executive order to declassify files related to the assassinations of President John F. Kennedy, his brother Robert, and Martin Luther King, Jr.
Fallout Among Republicans
Trump’s frantic efforts to divert attention have had little impact. Overall, Quinnipiac polling of registered voters released last week finds a meager 17 percent of voters say they approve of the way the Trump Administration is handling the Epstein files, while 63 percent of voters disapprove.
But more troubling for Trump is that the polling reveals unprecedented cracks in Trump’s base over the Epstein affair. Quinnipiac’s finds Republicans split: 40 percent approving of the way the Trump administration is handling the Jeffrey Epstein files, but 36 percent disapproving, with 24 percent not offering an opinion.
Backfire Among Hard-Right Activists
Trump now faces a backlash among his formerly loyal far-right activists as well, who will not back off of their demands to release the files. Laura Loomer in Politico summed up Trump’s problem. “When people voted for President Trump, releasing the Epstein files was something that was promised to the base.” Trump’s former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn posted on social media: “Please understand the EPSTEIN AFFAIR is not going away.”
Former White House aide Steve Bannon warned that the GOP could lose dozens of House seats in the 2026 midterms over the Trump administration’s handling of Epstein files. “You’re going to lose 10 percent of the MAGA movement. If we lose 10 percent of the MAGA movement right now, we ain’t gonna … we’re gonna lose 40 seats in ’26.”
Conspiracy Theories: MAGAs and Q’Anon
The centrality of conspiracy theories in much of Trump’s base means that Trump has reason to worry about the potential that the Epstein scandal will shred his MAGA base. Through the years that base has shown remarkable loyalty to Trump even in the face of Trump wrongdoing and mistruths -- that is, until the Epstein sex trafficking investigation resurfaced.
Trump’s support base is heavily weighted toward those who consider themselves MAGA – that part of the base that is both most loyal to Trump but also most susceptible to conspiracy theories. In a July Economist/YouGov Poll of adult Americans, 47 percent of Republicans describe themselves as MAGA Republicans, but 35 percent do not, with the rest unsure.
Trump’s MAGAs and Non-MAGAs Began To Splinter Before Epstein
MAGAs have been the most loyal part of Trump 2.0. One week into Trump’s second term, YouGov polling found that both MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans were near-unanimous in their approval of the president: 97 percent of MAGAs strongly or somewhat approved of Trump’s handling of the presidency, while 90 percent of non-MAGA Republicans approved.
Just prior to the Epstein firestorm, that same MAGA 97 percent continued to approve of Trump. But some cracks surfaced just before the Epstein affair, as “Liberation Day” tariffs and Trump’s failure to follow through on his other campaign pledges surfaced. Approval among non-MAGA Republicans was down 18 percentage points from January even before the Epstein scandal fully surfaced, according to Economist/YouGov polling.
Q’Anon: Trump’s Most Conspiratorial Supporters
The most conspiratorial parts of the Trump base are those who buy into the views of Q’Anon, which originated in the conspiracy known as Pizzagate. PRRI polling classifies 28 percent of Republicans as agreeing with Q’Anon’s views, though not necessarily “card-carrying members.” Almost half of Republicans fully reject Q’Anon beliefs. However, many right-wing influencers have made their careers or played footsie with Q’Anon beliefs in the Trump era.
In Pizzagate, conspiracy theorists invoked the existence of an elite cabal of satanic cannibals operating a child sex trafficking ring out of the basement of Comet Ping Pong. FYI, the restaurant does not have a basement. Q’Anon was founded in the belief that Trump is an avenging archangel sent by God to investigate, bring to justice, put on trial, and execute the cosmopolitan elites who rule the world through a global Satanic pedophile conspiracy.
Q’Anon Shaman Slams Trump
Q’Anon followers also believe that: (1) Because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country, (2) There is a storm coming soon that will sweep away the elites in power and restore the rightful leaders. This coming justice is referred to as “the storm.”
Longtime MAGA supporter Jacob Chansley, better known as the Q’Anon Shaman, posting a Trump mug shot, slammed Trump: "F--- this stupid piece of s---,” adding, "What a fraud..." Q’Anon Shaman was pardoned by Trump for his role in Jan. 6 riot, when he stormed the Capitol wearing an elaborate horned fur headdress. He has since deleted the post.
Trump’s Numbers Sinking, But Republican Support Holding Firm
While many Republicans disapprove of Trump’s refusal to release the Epstein files, most still approve of his presidency overall according to the latest Gallup polling. Even as Trump’s overall approval ratings continue to sink – now at 37 percent in this week’s Gallup poll – 90 percent of Republicans continue to support Trump, at least for now. A 17-point decline among independents, to 29 percent, has taken the biggest toll on his job approval.
In Conclusion
Trump’s frantic efforts to ward off the Epstein file backlash with his “tried and true” disproven conspiracy strategies has not been working. After campaigning on a pledge to release the files. he backed off, leading to suspicions by many in his base that the files contained damaging information about Trump – unconfirmed at this point.
Fighting conspiracies with conspiracies highlights that in Trump’s world conspiracies are a main currency of his politics. In fact, as Fareed Zakaria points out, “Trump has brought into mainstream people like Alex Jones and Kash Patel, who have trafficked in even more extreme theories and insinuations.” Zakaria concludes that conspiracy theories… “are now central – and increasing normalized…in American political and social life.”
###